Integrated Growth Forecast
The Forecasting Section, under the Community Development Division, Planning and Policy Department, is responsible for producing socioeconomic projections and developing, refining and maintaining SCAG's regional and small area forecasting models. The Forecasting Section works closely with the Plans and Programs Technical Advisory Committee, the California Department of Finance ( DOF ), subregions, local jurisdictions, CTCs, the public and other major stakeholders.
Using the base year socioeconomic forecasts, the Forecasting Section develops future forecasts in 5-year intervals. These forecasts and projections are made available at multiple geographic levels, including regional, county, city, unincorporated areas, census tract, and Transportation Analysis Zones ( TAZ ) levels.
These forecast numbers are used by SCAG's Modeling section to forecast travel demand and air quality for planning activities such as the Regional Transportation Plan ( RTP ), the Air Quality Management Plan ( AQMP ), Regional Transportation Improvement Program ( RTIP ), and the Regional Housing Plan.
If you have any questions or comments, please contact Elizabeth Delgado at (213) 236-1846 or by email at delgado@scag.ca.gov.
2008 RTP Draft Baseline and Policy Growth Forecast Land Use Maps
The following maps are in JPEG format.
- Draft Baseline Growth Forecast by Subregion:
- Arroyo Verdugo Cities
- City of Los Angeles
- Coachella Valley Association of Governments
- Gateway Cities Council of Governments
- Imperial Valley Association of Governments
- Las Virgenes Malibu Council of Governments
- North Los Angeles County
- Orange County Council of Governments
- San Bernardino Associated Governments
- San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities
- South Bay Cities Council of Governments
- Ventura Council of Governments
- Western Riverside Council of Governments
- Westside Cities Council of Governments
- Draft Policy Growth Forecast by Subregion:
- Arroyo Verdugo Cities
- City of Los Angeles
- Coachella Valley Association of Governments
- Gateway Cities Council of Governments
- Imperial Valley Association of Governments
- Las Virgenes Malibu Council of Governments
- North Los Angeles County
- Orange County Council of Governments
- San Bernardino Associated Governments
- San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities
- South Bay Cities Council of Governments
- Ventura Council of Governments
- Western Riverside Council of Governments
- Westside Cities Council of Governments
Maps Comparing Draft Policy Growth Forecast with Draft Baseline Forecast
Employment
The following maps are in JPEG format.
- TAZ Growth Forecast Employment Imperial
- TAZ Growth Forecast Employment Los Angeles
- TAZ Growth Forecast Employment Orange
- TAZ Growth Forecast Employment Region
- TAZ Growth Forecast Employment Riverside
- TAZ Growth Forecast Employment San Bernardino
- TAZ Growth Forecast Employment Ventura
- TAZ Growth Forecast Employment by Subregion:
- Arroyo Verdugo Cities
- City of Los Angeles
- Coachella Valley Association of Governments
- Gateway Cities Council of Governments
- Imperial Valley Association of Governments
- Las Virgenes Malibu Council of Governments
- North Los Angeles County
- Orange County Council of Governments
- San Bernardino Associated Governments
- San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities
- South Bay Cities Council of Governments
- Ventura Council of Governments
- Western Riverside Council of Governments
- Westside Cities Council of Governments
Household
The following maps are in JPEG format.
- TAZ Growth Forecast Household Imperial
- TAZ Growth Forecast Household Los Angeles
- TAZ Growth Forecast Household Orange
- TAZ Growth Forecast Household Region
- TAZ Growth Forecast Household Riverside
- TAZ Growth Forecast Household San Bernardino
- TAZ Growth Forecast Household Ventura
- TAZ Growth Forecast Household by Subregion:
- Arroyo Verdugo Cities
- City of Los Angeles
- Coachella Valley Association of Governments
- Gateway Cities Council of Governments
- Imperial Valley Association of Governments
- Las Virgenes Malibu Council of Governments
- North Los Angeles County
- Orange County Council of Governments
- San Bernardino Associated Governments
- San Gabriel Valley Association of Cities
- South Bay Cities Council of Governments
- Ventura Council of Governments
- Western Riverside Council of Governments
- Westside Cities Council of Governments
Draft 2008 RTP Baseline Growth Forecast (built upon subregion/local jurisdiction input as is.)
Released on November 1, 2007 by SCAG CEHD Committee along with the Draft 2008 RTP for public review and comment.
2008 RTP Growth Forecasts – Interim Analysis and Products
The P&P TAC in its meeting on August 27, 2007 requested SCAG staff make available the workshop test scenario data sets and modeling results. The data sets and modeling results were interim analysis and products produced in May/June 2007. Since only 2030 network was available at that time, the data sets and modeling runs were for year 2030.
As shown by the modeling results: the mobility performances for the two workshop test scenarios (with and without county controls) were not as good as either 2004 RTP update, or the baseline case. As results of these analyses, staff has decided not to further pursue the development of these two data sets.
- 2030 Modeling Results for 2030 Baseline (Local Input), 2030 2004 RTP Update and 2030 Workshop Test Scenerios with and without County Controls
- Test With Controls
- Test Without Controls
- Updated 2004 RTP
FAQs and Related Documents
- Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) related to the development of the Integrated Growth Forecast and Growth Visioning 2% Land Use Alternative
- Growth Visioning Scenarios
- 2035 New Employment Centers
- Transit-Oriented Development (TOD) Study Areas