Process

Developing the 2008 RTP Integrated Growth Forecast is a collaborate process. SCAG has worked with SCAG subregions/jurisdictions, Regional Council and Policy Committees, Plans and Programs Technical Advisory Committee, panel of experts, major stakeholders and data users, and consultant teams.

2005

  • CEHD approved and directed staff to proceed with the 2008 RTP growth forecast development based on the adopted 2004 RTP growth forecasts (February 2005)
  • Reviewed and made revisions to 2003 base year small area distribution
  • Requested and received input from subregions regarding future growth
  • Reviewed and presented recent trends in population, employment and household growth
  • Completed preliminary 2008 RTP baseline growth forecasts at regional/county/subregional level

2006

  • Convened panel of experts to review and comment on 2008 RTP/EIR/RHNA growth forecast (January)
  • Invited jurisdictions to present perspectives on growth issues to Panel of Experts (February)
  • Presented updated 2008 RTP/EIR/RHNA growth forecasts at regional and county levels to Plans & Programs Technical Advisory Committee and Panel of Experts (March-August)
  • CEHD directed staff to proceed with disaggregation of draft 2008 baseline regional/county forecasts into smaller geographic levels and to schedule subregional/ local jurisdiction workshops (September 14th)
  • Coordinated 15 subregional workshops (October-December): Interactive exercise 2035, and RHNA exercise 2006-2014

2007

  • The CEHD Committee directed staff to develop the 2008 RTP policy growth forecasts along the following principles (August 30):
    • Identify regional strategic areas for infill development (TOD, Existing and Emerging Centers, Small mixed use areas)
    • Structure the plan on a 3-tiered (existing, planned and potential) system of centers development
    • Develop ‘complete communities’
    • Develop nodes on a corridor
    • Plan for additional housing and jobs nears transit
    • Plan for a changing demand in types of housing
    • Continue to protect stable existing single family areas
    • Ensure adequate access to open space and preservation of habitat
    • Incorporate local input and feedback on future growth
  • The RC approved the Release of 2008 RTP Draft Baseline and Draft Policy Growth Forecasts for Public Review and Comment (November 1).

2008

  • The Regional Council adopted the Baseline Growth Forecast with a statement of advisory land use policies/ strategies for incorporation into the 2008 Regional Transportation Plan on March, 6, 2008. One dataset- the Draft Baseline Growth Forecast- was adopted at the county and regional levels.

Draft 2008 RTP Baseline Growth Forecast (built upon subregion/local jurisdiction input as is.)

Released on November 1, 2007 by SCAG CEHD Committee along with the Draft 2008 RTP for public review and comment.

2008 RTP Growth Forecasts – Interim Analysis and Products

The P&P TAC in its meeting on August 27, 2007 requested SCAG staff make available the workshop test scenario data sets and modeling results. The data sets and modeling results were interim analysis and products produced in May/June 2007. Since only 2030 network was available at that time, the data sets and modeling runs were for year 2030.

As shown by the modeling results: the mobility performances for the two workshop test scenarios (with and without county controls) were not as good as either 2004 RTP update, or the baseline case. As results of these analyses, staff has decided not to further pursue the development of these two data sets.

FAQs and Related Documents

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