2008 RTP/EIR Draft Growth Alternatives/Scenarios Descriptions
2008 RTP Draft Baseline Growth Forecast Alternative
The draft baseline growth forecast for the 2008 RTP represents the most likely growth distribution in the absence of any explicit regional policies. In addition to historical demographic trends and future projections, the following recent local input reflecting current general plans and local policies were considered and incorporated:
- Imperial County: the 2035 consensus total population, household, and employment growth projections at traffic analysis zone (TAZ) and city levels agreed upon by SCAG, IVAG, and Caltrans District 11.
- Los Angeles County: the 2035 total population, household, and employment growth projections at census tract and city levels provided by subregions/cities.
- Orange County: the Adopted 2006 OCP 2035 total housing and employment projections at census tract, city, and county levels as submitted by OCCOP.
- Riverside County: the 2006 RCP 2035 total population, household, and employment projections at census tract, city, and county levels provided by Riverside County Transportation and Land Management Agency (RCTLMA). This agency collected city level/census tract level input from local jurisdictions in Riverside County as agreed upon by RCTLMA, WRCOG, and CVAG.
- San Bernardino County: the 2035 household and employment projections at census tract, city, and county levels provided by SANBAG.
- Ventura County: the 2035 total population, household, and employment growth projections at census tract and city levels provided by VCOG.
In addition, the technical forecast at regional level presented to Plans an Programs Technical Advisory Committee in March 2006 was used as reference to ensure technical consistency and integrity of major variables-population, employment, household-built upon this bottoms-up process by summing up all local/subregion projections.
2008 RTP Draft Policy Growth Forecast Alternative
The 2008 RTP Draft Policy Growth Forecast reflects a scaled back application of the Compass Blueprint Principles compared the Envision Growth Scenario, still yielding similar transportation benefits. It relies on focusing growth toward existing and planned regional centers and transit areas. It also assumes more mixed use development types to encourage increased transit use and non-motorized transportation alternatives. It reflects the input incorporated into the Workshop Growth Scenario, including reintroducing some of the lower density, primarily single-family uses strategically throughout the region.
Modified 2004 RTP EIR Growth Scenario
The Modified 2004 RTP EIR Growth Scenario represents a technically updated 2004 RTP Plan Forecast by controlling TAZ level data to the updated regional total from the 2008 RTP Draft Baseline Growth Forecast and extending the horizon year from 2030 to 2035.
Workshop EIR Growth Scenario
The Workshop EIR Growth Scenario was developed as a result of the input gathered at the Integrated Forecast Workshops held in the Fall of 2006. Over 90% of jurisdictions in the SCAG region provided input on the Test Scenario which SCAG consultants/staff developed based on the adopted 2004 RTP update forecast, Compass Blueprint Principles and the most recent demographic data. The input and comments to the Test Scenario were compiled and used to create the Workshop Scenario. This scenario will be analyzed as an EIR Alternative.
Envision EIR Growth Scenario
The Envision EIR Growth Scenario reflects a combination of the TOD and Centers Scenarios (described below) in an effort to maximize utilization of the existing and planned transportation system and to minimize development of existing open space. Housing growth was redistributed away from areas with long commutes (more than 50 miles) and to jobs rich and transit accessible communities. This scenario will be analyzed as an EIR Alternative.
The TOD Scenario assigned greater capacity to areas around existing and planned transit stations. Mathematical redistributions were made to move housing away from areas with long commutes to transit station adjacent areas with TOD potential.
The Centers Scenario assigned greater capacity to areas in and around significant employment centers. Mathematical redistributions were made to move housing from areas with long commutes to jobs rich areas with existing capacity.